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Bisson began with a sobering reality check: we are now living in what he terms an "off-peak TV" era. After years of booming production, global first-run scripted series orders have dropped by 25% in the last two years — a decline exacerbated by the Hollywood strikes of 2023. “The new peak is 75% of what we once called Peak TV — and we are not going back,” he stated, setting a tone of cautious realism for the discussion ahead.
Content spending, once growing at double-digit rates annually, has now flattened to low single digits — 1% to 2% — a trend Bisson expects to continue for the foreseeable future.
Despite the downturn, the globalization of content production has accelerated. Driven by rising domestic costs and market saturation in the U.S., major American studios and streamers have increasingly shifted their production activities overseas. Bisson illustrated how, since 2020, U.S. studios have funneled significant production investment into international markets, with Europe — and Central Europe in particular — emerging as key beneficiaries.
This phenomenon, often referred to as "runaway production," allows companies to produce content abroad at lower costs while still serving global audiences. Thanks to competitive production incentives, growing local talent pools, and established infrastructures, countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and others in Central Europe have seen production volumes actually increase even as overall global orders decline.
The Growing Power of the Streamers
The rise of the global streaming giants has been a key factor in this shift. Streamers have become significant players in international commissioning, though Bisson noted that their international production volumes have recently contracted — dropping from nearly 60% to 35% of their total output in just four years. While Europe remains a major production hub for streamers, markets in Asia — particularly Korea, Japan, Thailand, and the Philippines — are becoming increasingly attractive.
The panel then pivoted to the crux of the discussion: the renewed threat of U.S. protectionism, particularly if Donald Trump were to return to office. Trump’s administration has already signaled an aggressive approach to leveraging protectionist policies across industries — and entertainment may not be exempt.
Bisson outlined a controversial policy proposal developed by John Boyd (with input from Sylvester Stallone) designed to “make Hollywood great again.” Among its key measures:
Federal tax credits of 10% on U.S. productions.
100% write-offs on production investments for one year.
Reinstatement of domestic production deductions to lower effective taxes for U.S.-made content.
A staggering 120% tariff on any financial incentives received from foreign production schemes — effectively penalizing producers who shoot internationally.
Reinstatement of FinCEN rules, allowing producers to retain rights rather than streamers owning them outright.
Increased California production incentives to compete with other states and international locations.
Bilateral tax treaties with select markets (starting with the UK), allowing producers to stack incentives between countries.
If enacted, such policies would have enormous implications for international production. European markets — particularly the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Poland, Turkey, and the Nordics — could lose substantial U.S. investment if tariffs were imposed on overseas incentive schemes. At the same time, certain aspects of the proposal, such as federal tax credits and tax treaties, could reinvigorate domestic production without entirely shutting off international collaboration.
Interestingly, Bisson’s analysis suggests that European countries with their own levies and quotas have demonstrated more resilience during the recent downturn compared to countries without such measures — indicating that some form of controlled protectionism may actually stabilize domestic markets.
