Markets

The Market Has Stopped Falling—But It Has Not Yet Started Climbing
After two years of contraction, the global content market edged back into growth in 2025, expanding by around 1.5%—a modest sign of stabilisation after a period defined by budget cuts, layoffs and the aggressive recalibration of streaming platforms’ spending priorities.
However, Broughton cautioned attendees not to confuse spend with output. Commissioning levels, he noted, have now settled into a new normal—a reset from the hyperinflation of the streaming wars rather than a precursor to another boom.

Broadcasters Still Drive the Content Economy
One of the session’s more sobering takeaways challenged a commonly held assumption: that SVoD platforms dominate global commissioning. In reality, free-to-air commercial broadcasters remain the most active commissioners worldwide, representing a third of new titles, followed by public broadcasters at just under 30%. Streamers accounted for roughly 13–14% of commissions in 2025—down from their growth peak.
This evidences a broader strategic pivot: streaming is no longer powered by runaway catalogue acquisition and prestige originals but by tighter, more sustainable economics.

The Silent Giant: AVoD’s Ascendancy
Broughton identified one structural shift that will reshape the content value chain in the next 24 months: the rise of advertising-funded streaming. Platforms such as Tubi, Pluto, the Roku Channel and Freevee are amassing vast catalogues and, critically, audience attention.
In 2026, Ampere predicts a historic turning point, as AVoD platforms begin commissioning original content for the first time—no longer relying solely on library acquisitions.
For producers, this opens a fresh lane for development and monetisation at a moment when traditional gateways are narrowing.

The Industry’s Blind Spots: What Viewers Want vs. What Producers Deliver
Ampere’s data exposed three areas where audience demand is rising faster than industry supply:

Horror content is booming
Younger audiences—especially 18–34s—rank horror among their top favourite genres, yet UK commissions in the category remain low and mostly film-driven. The global market is moving, but domestic production isn’t keeping pace.

Influencer-led titles are underexploited
Despite creators holding unprecedented sway over viewing habits, UK commissions of influencer-centric TV/film have collapsed—from 12% of the global share to just 4% this year.

The format economy is shrinking
Not only are commissions of the top 10 existing formats falling, but new formats are not filling the pipeline. The result: an innovation deficit at precisely the moment audiences crave novelty.
For commissioners and distributors, the implication is clear: high-growth genres and creator ecosystems are no longer fringe—they are market drivers.

Broughton revisited Ampere’s 2024 predictions, highlighting where their models aligned with reality:
Content spend rebounded but commissioning remained subdued
Crime and thriller held firm as the backbone of scripted strategies
AI moved from theoretical to practical, powering everything from recap systems to VFX enhancements
Where the firm underestimated change was in inflation, which remained stubborn due to tariff-driven uncertainty—proof that macroeconomics remains a wildcard in media forecasting.

What Producers Should Expect in 2026
Looking ahead, Ampere anticipates four defining shifts:
IP moves from product to ecosystem—extending across social platforms, games, merchandising and more
Commissioning volume plateaus despite spending increases
Influencers enter long-form and professional producers enter short-form
AVoD platforms commission originals, changing the economics of secondary rights forever

A Reset, Not a Retreat

The greatest misunderstanding of today’s market, Broughton implied, is the assumption that decline equals disappearance. In reality, television is not shrinking—it is reorganising. The frenzy has subsided, the rules have changed, and the next phase belongs to those who can operate across multiple time horizons: the near-term discipline of commissioning restraint and the long-term vision of IP expansion.

For producers, distributors and investors, Ampere’s message offered a rare gift in a cautious industry climate: clarity.

The boom years are gone. The reset years have arrived. And the companies that act now—before the next upswing—will be the ones shaping the future of global content.