Markets

On Tuesday, June 10, at the Palace Hotel during NEM Dubrovnik, Maria Rua Aguete, Executive Director and Technology Fellow at Omdia, opened the second day of panels with a compelling keynote titled "TV Ads vs. TV Digital Ads" — offering a deep dive into the shifting dynamics of television and streaming in Eastern Europe.

Her presentation highlighted a fascinating paradox: while global markets are seeing traditional TV decline in favor of digital and streaming, Eastern Europe bucks the trend. In fact, Rua Aguete revealed, media and entertainment in this region are projected to grow by 7% in 2025, outpacing the global average of 6% and more than doubling the projected U.S. growth of just 3%.

A Unique Landscape: Traditional TV Still Dominates
In a world where streaming — both free and paid — has overtaken linear TV in most markets, Eastern Europe remains an exception. Traditional television, including telco-distributed and linear TV, still commands half of the region’s $20 billion media market, while online streaming lags significantly behind — a situation that Rua Aguete described as “unusual.”

Even more surprisingly, linear and pay TV are still growing in this region, contrasting sharply with global patterns of decline. However, Rua Aguete stressed that this won't last forever: “Streaming will soon start booming” in Eastern Europe, driven by increasing adoption and a digital-first audience. And when it does, global platforms are poised to dominate.

Global Giants Lead the Streaming Race
Currently, Netflix leads the paid streaming market, followed by Disney+, YouTube Premium, and Max. No local player holds a leading position across the region — a wake-up call for domestic providers. “YouTube Premium,” Rua Aguete noted, “is particularly popular in Eastern Europe because users are willing to pay to avoid ads.”

She emphasized the urgency for local streamers and telcos to take action before global giants fully corner the market. “If local players don’t step up,” she warned, “Netflix, Disney, and YouTube will continue to dominate both subscriptions and advertising revenues.”

Connected TV: Huge Globally, Tiny in Eastern Europe
Rua Aguete then turned to the rapidly evolving advertising ecosystem. Globally, linear TV ad revenues are declining, with spending migrating to connected TV (CTV). In some markets, such as the U.S., CTV ad revenue is expected to surpass linear TV by 2028.

But in Eastern Europe, CTV remains a tiny slice of the pie — only 3% of TV-set revenues, compared to 23% globally. Notably, most of this tiny revenue share currently goes to Google/YouTube.

Still, there’s hope. Rua Aguete concluded her session with a positive message: “Digital is not just cannibalizing traditional TV. It’s attracting new advertisers. The opportunity is here — but it’s up to local broadcasters to seize it.”

Michal Stefanski: Google’s Perspective on the TV-Digital Shift
Following Rua Aguete, Michal Stefanski, Head of Partnerships for Central and Eastern Europe at Google, presented a complementary vision focused on the digital transformation of TV and video advertising.

Referencing his 80s upbringing with humor (cfr. Dallas the iconic TV series),  Stefanski charted the dramatic shift from broadcast to on-demand, emphasizing that “broadcasters can no longer afford not to have digital assets.” The pandemic, he said, accelerated this shift by at least four to five years.

From Creation to Monetization: AI and Addressable TV
Stefanski unpacked the three pillars of future video advertising: content creation, distribution, and monetization — all increasingly powered by AI and personalization.

Content creation: With the rise of generative AI tools, creating high-quality video has become dramatically cheaper and faster. One Polish content creator, he noted, produced a commercial with AI for $500 — versus an estimated $500,000 using traditional production.

Distribution: YouTube, once a platform for amateur creators, is now being professionalized. Creators like Mr. Beast operate massive studios, and YouTube itself hosts over 2.7 billion monthly users consuming 1 billion hours of content daily.

Monetization: Google is leveraging programmatic ad tech to bring addressable advertising to OTT, free-to-air via HbbTV, and set-top boxes. Android TV is now being used to turn conventional commercial breaks into targeted digital opportunities, giving smaller advertisers access to previously unreachable audiences.

YouTube: From Competitor to Collaborator
Stefanski echoed Rua Aguete’s call for a strategic rethinking of YouTube. Rather than viewing it solely as competition, he urged broadcasters to see it as a promotional and monetization partner. In the UK, for example, Channel 4 and others now host content directly on YouTube — not as a compromise, but as a strategy to expand reach and engage younger audiences.

Stefanski ended with a bold prediction: as the digital-native generation shapes new viewing habits, the boundaries between traditional and digital TV will continue to blur, and only those who adapt — creatively and technologically — will thrive.